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Novelty and Primacy: When the Effect You Measure Depends on How Long You Looked
The test reports a 9 percent lift after three days, 5.7 after two weeks and 3.9 after four. None of those is the answer. The effect on a user who has lived w...
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How Big Does a Test Set Need to Be?
A challenger beats the incumbent by 0.8 accuracy points on 400 test cases. The standard error of that measurement is 1.5 points. The comparison was decided b...
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Your Biological Age Is Not a Single Number
Epigenetic clocks are useful research tools, but “biological age” is not one directly observed property of the body. Different clocks estimate different cons...
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Competing Risks, Recurrent Events, and Multi-State Models Are Not the Same Problem
A single event time is only one possible event-history object. When causes compete, events recur, subjects move through intermediate states, or a longitudina...
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The Dangerous Push Toward Practical Mathematics: Why Pure Research Must Remain Protected
The pressure to justify mathematics by immediate usefulness misunderstands how mathematical progress works. Pure research needs protection precisely because ...
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The Intellectual Crisis: How Utilitarian Thinking is Destroying the Foundation of Human Progress
Short-term thinking and utilitarian pressures are undermining the very institutions that sustain human progress. This is a crisis not just in science policy,...
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Stability Is Not Truth
A continuous Gaussian population can produce highly stable clusters. A negative control, positive control and representation perturbation show what bootstrap...
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Applications of Mathematics and Machine Learning in Industrial Management: A Comprehensive Review
This review explores the transformative applications of mathematical optimization and machine learning in industrial management, with a focus on production p...
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The Bullwhip Effect as Variance Amplification
The bullwhip effect is not just a story about bad communication. Forecast updating, replenishment rules, lead time, batching, and local incentives can transf...
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Probability Calibration in Machine Learning: From Classical Methods to Modern Approaches and Venn–ABERS Predictors
Explore the evolution of probability calibration methods in machine learning, from histogram binning to Venn–ABERS predictors, with a deep dive into theory, ...
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